There are red flags everywhere: Many of our most densely populated communities are adjacent to the ocean or the gulf. And areas just miles away from the storm like Sarasota, St. Pete and Tampa did not even experience hurricane force gusts. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. "Or would they let a hurricane hit to get even with the Spanish and the white settlers that moved down from the north and took their land? The likelihood of storms making a direct hit on the Gulf Coast increases in September and even more in October, during the second half of the hurricane season, when cooler air moves south, and jet-stream winds, which blow around the Earth from east to west, take storm systems with them. This causes the hurricane to become downgraded as it moves inland. We don't know.". But many still believe the blessing protects us. Also known as the Tarpon Springs hurricane, the Category 3 storm leveled the region with up to 115 mph winds. As the Gulf Coast just south of Tampa Bay recovers from the devastation left from Hurricane Ian, many Tampa Bay residents are breathing an uneasy sigh of relief. Its no wonder that actuaries get cross-eyed looking at Floridas property insurance risk. "I think it's kind of cool. It was so strong that it caused damage to coastal structures which were miles away from Pasco County south through southwest Florida and even destroyed ships smashing them against docks after pulling them off their moorings. The headline read, "Weatherman Optimistic for Future.". A hundred years of good luck? The 20 U.S. cities most in danger of getting smacked by a major hurricane in the next decades are all in Florida. He says it's less of a blessing or a curse than it is about the science behind hurricanes. However, that hasnt prevented the scientific community from noticing this odd pattern. Its been over a century since a major hurricane (category 3 or greater) has made landfall in the Tampa Bay Area. So we are very fortunate we have not been hit by a major hurricane in close to a hundred years.". I was at work. Thats all the more reason for people and places to get prepared. The last time Tampa Bay was hit by a major storm was Oct. 25, 1921. "I feel like being here," Anderson said. Many of the 347,645 people living in the area have homes along the coast, making residents susceptible to storm surge. "After this interview, I'm going to go knock on wood cause I'm superstitious," ABC Action News reporter Michael Paluska told Brian LaMarre, the Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service in Tampa. They can come from a group of models or one ensemble model that creates multiple possible storm tracks. It is one of the few coastal places skipped over by Spanish explorers, the only people who wrote descriptions of early Florida. Central Florida includes the Orlando, Daytona, and Jacksonville areas. Some estimates are as much as 15 feet of storm surge. Turn them in to HCSO Valentines. It just never seems to happen, St. Petersburg resident Leonard McCue told the Washington Post in 2017 following Hurricane Irma. The city has since made drastic improvements to its levee system since Katrina left most of the city under several feet of water. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. In July, Hurricane Elsa made a close pass but stayed offshore. There are urban legends that the Sunshine Skyway protects Tampa Bay. And two, we wonder why we're lucky.". "Do they want to protect their burial mounds," Farias wondered in the interview. Strong persistent winds will push a lot of water into the bay and theres nowhere for it to go, so it just builds up, said Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miamis Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science. In 2017, Hurricane Irma appeared to be headed straight into the Gulf of Mexico toward the St. Petersburg and Tampa area, before it turned into Marco Island instead, 146 miles south of St. Petersburg and Tampa, allowing the area to largely avoid a catastrophic direct strike. Due to global warming, global climate models predict hurricanes will likely cause more intense rainfall and have an increased coastal flood risk due to higher storm surge caused by rising seas, Angela Colbert, a scientist at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory, wrote in a June report. A Pinellas resident for 45 years, she was waiting for Irma to make a turn like Hurricane Charley did in 2004. The Saffir Simpson hurricane scale categorizes these storms as catastrophic damage producers. How much should we rebuild on barrier islands? The popular refrain in you hear in Tampa Bay is that the area has not been directly hit by a major hurricane in over 100 years. Weve made it through another major that was supposed to come right at us. All the petroleum and liquid chemical tanks have big berms around them that, in theory, would stop any petroleum that might leak out escaping the property. By The Burgert Brothers Photographic Collection at the Hillsborough County Public Library Cooperative contained the most pictures of the storm. With the Atlantic Ocean to the south and east and the Gulf of Mexico to the north and west, the coastal town is exposed to all sides to passing hurricanes. Tocobagan Indian Mounds have been found in Safety Harbor and near the Gandy. As a result, Cape Hatteras has been exposed in the past to hurricanes that move up the Eastern Seaboard. "The signature storm for the West Coast of Florida, especially the Tampa Bay area, is the October 25, 1921 storm. Just how vulnerable? Its almost like when a myth becomes history, Farias said. The only other hurricane known to have made a direct hit on Tampa Bay was the Great Gale of 1848, which made landfall in Clearwater, Florida in late September174 years ago. Tampa has been undergoing major infrastructure upgrades to protect the vulnerable city from flooding, but as Hurricane Ian barrels toward Florida's west coast, the project is still years from. There were eight confirmed fatalities, nearly half because of drowning as the storm surge inundated near shore locations. Hurricane Katrina (2005) is a prime example of the damage and devastation that can be caused by surge. With the Atlantic Ocean to the east and a maximum elevation of 42 feet above sea level Miamis geography makes it highly vulnerable to hurricanes. Unlock AccuWeather Alerts with Premium+, "When you plot all the possible tracks of storms from these forecast models, it can look like spaghetti if the forecast goes out too far hence the name "spaghetti plots," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell said. "In order for Tampa to get a direct landfall, the storm has to hit them from the southwest," Kottlowski said. "It really tells us two things. One of the problems is that gasoline and diesel fuel are lighter than water, so if the tanks are not completely full, it could float off its foundation. Give Light and the People Will Find Their Own Way, Burgert Brothers Photographic Collection at the Hillsborough County Public Library Cooperative, waves from the bay almost breaking in the streets of Ybor City. The previous year, a much-weakened Tropical Storm Eta made landfall about 130 miles north of Tampa in November 2020. Everything underwater, massive flooding," Dr. Luther said. Those figures are based on a Tampa . There's a 23-foot mound here at Sacred Lands in the Jungle Prada neighborhood, south of Park Street N and 22nd Avenue N. The Anderson family has owned the property since the 1940s and lived in a private residence, 13-feet above sea level behind the mound, since 1953. In this aerial image, the city of Tampa, Fla., is seen Monday, Sept. 26, 2022. | Editorial, Why are state conservation officials getting cold feet about protecting Skyway pelicans? Then, early Monday morning, Irma's sudden downgrade to a Category 2 reaffirmed her belief. "Miami has a large population density, and as a result, the effects of a major hurricane would be catastrophic to the city," AccuWeather Meteorologist David Samuhel said. The adjacent Gulf of Mexico is also shallow. What are those large pyramids next to the Skyway? It could have been because of storms or mosquito levels. Tampa Bay has dodged a direct hurricane hit for a century. So, for everyone watching this report or reading this article, whether you believe in jinxes, superstitions, curses or the supernatural, do us a favor and knock on some wood for good luck. The area hit the hardest is where the Sparkman Channel and Ybor Channel meet, next to Port Tampa Bay. Jeannot will be a restricted free agent this summer and . As the Tampa Bay Times explains, it's likely that Ian will bring up to a foot of rain in the area and some experts, including meteorologist Jeff Masters, have compared it to 2005's Hurricane Katrina. That has been our story for nearly a hundred years now," Rui Farias, executive director of the St. Petersburg Museum of History, told AccuWeather. This is vividly illustrated below in category 5 Hurricane Andrew, in which the most intense winds were confined to the eyewall near Homestead, Kendall and Coral Gables, a fair distance south of Miami and very far south of Ft Lauderdale. At least eight people died and damage was estimated at $5 million at the time. The tribe began dying off due to war and disease brought by a Spanish explorer and his men in the 16th century. In the Tampa Bay Area, only 2 of the above catastrophic hurricanes impacted the area Charley and Irma. McNoldy, the University of Miami researcher, noted that Hurricane Andrews storm surge today would be 7 inches (17 centimeters) higher than it was when that storm pounded South Florida 30 years ago. Graham referenced the past couple of years hyperactive hurricane seasons and the multiple landfalls in Louisiana, saying that in a different weather pattern, that could have easily been the West Coast of Florida. When Hurricane Isabel struck the region in 2003, the Army Corp of Engineers was forced to fill up an inlet that was created when the storm split Hatteras Island between Frisco and Hatteras, North Carolina. Tuesday, October 25, 1921, was the last time Tampa Bay got hit by a major hurricane. The members of the Editorial Board are Editor of Editorials Graham Brink, Sherri Day, Sebastian Dortch, John Hill, Jim Verhulst and Chairman and CEO Conan Gallaty. Baram first heard the story at a dinner party several years ago. The article describing in terrifying detail how a husband lost his wife on Rocky Point: On the other side of the bay in Oldsmar, similar stories of survival. I have no idea. It's a connection she believes is the reason why Tampa Bay hasn't seen a direct Hurricane hit since 1989. We spent hours at the John F. Germany Public Library in downtown Tampa combing through newspapers on microfilm. Most storms move south to north and south of Tampa is Marco Island," which is where Irma made landfall. Over the past century, there have been several close calls. The Anderson family has owned the property since the 1940s and lived in a private residence, 13-feet above sea level behind the mound, since 1953. I keep my fingers crossed all hurricane season," Dr. Luther said. (VIAVAL/Getty Images). told the Washington Post in 2017 following Hurricane Irma. Doris Anderson isn't necessarily one of them. Technically, Irma did make a direct hit on part of Tampa in 2017, though it was a bit of a glancing blow from a weakened hurricane. The Post, in fact, found that people are moving to counties categorized as high risk for hurricane-force winds at six times the rate of other counties. The National Read Across America Day takes place every year on March 2, Geisels birthday. The day it roared ashore, the morning edition of the St. Petersburg Times had the headline "City Escapes Big Hurricane." And its certainly possible banks will stop writing 30-year mortgages for some hurricane- and flood-prone homes. Eight people were killed when the storm hit the seaside town with 120 mph. Tampa Bay was beginning a land boom, and the roaring twenties were in full swing. But the population was not unusually high. With climate change and sea-level rise, Dr. Luther says a storm similar to the 1921 hurricane would be even worse. And, taking into account climate change, areas that wouldn't flood before could now be under several feet of water. "It looks a lot better out there from any of the beaches to the south," Heil said. After all, they are called barriers for a reason. Oct. 25, 1921 marks 100 years without major a hurricane. Tampa Bay has had many close calls since 1921. There are red flags everywhere: Many of our most densely populated communities are adjacent to the ocean . Along the coast, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a hurricane. We got a tour of the Pinellas County Emergency Operations Center. Lets take a deeper look at just how often Tampa Bay avoids a direct hit from hurricanes. Many of the 347,645 people living. Can birds tell when a hurricane is coming? Hurricane Irma is the most recent in 2017. The last time Tampa Bay was hit by a major storm was Oct. 25, 1921. "I love that story.". Flooding and wind damage from hurricanes is getting more common in the United States, and that trend will accelerate and threaten millions of people as the Earth gets hotter according to new research. Profanity, personal Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. "I've heard that one," she said. Tampa Bay has dodged a direct hurricane hit for a century It's one of the most populated areas on Florida's Gulf Coast, but hasn't had a direct hit from a landfalling hurricane in 100 years.. The National Hurricane Center is predicting storm surge in Tampa Bay and surrounding waters of between 5 and 10 feet (1.5 and 3 meters) above normal tide conditions and rainfall of between 10 and 15 inches (12 and 25 centimeters) because of Hurricane Ian. Tampa Skyline (Flickr Photo/Sonny Side Up!). This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. "Cape Hatteras is very close to the Gulf Stream, which enables hurricanes to strengthen due to warmer ocean temperatures during the summer," Samuhel explained. Was Florida red tide made worse by Hurricane Ian? Another reminder of Floridas massive hurricane risk | Editorial. The Tampa Bay area hasn't suffered a direct hit from a hurricane since 1929. Skyrocketing property insurance rates will change some minds. This piece of folklore came from my co-worker, who grew up in Tampa, Florida. The popular refrain in you hear in Tampa Bay is that the area has not been directly hit by a major hurricane in over 100 years. On the western edge of St. Petersburg, Doris and Erik Anderson live on Sacred Lands. Downed power lines in Ybor City, the trolley line washed away along Bayshore Boulevard, flooded homes in Hyde Park, and docks and boats washed ashore along where the current Tampa Riverwalk now runs. Thats not going to drain out quickly, said Cathie Perkins, emergency management director in Pinellas County, where St. Petersburg and Clearwater are located. Whether Sarasota residents actually believe the American Indian myth depends on whom you ask. I think were in the perfect spot, Bonita Bay resident Chris Williams told the Post. "That'll be good," LaMarre said. "Spaghetti plots" are collections of potential forecast tracks for tropical stormsbased on slightly different possible weather conditions. Tampa Bay has had some close calls with hurricanes. But after wreaking havoc in the Florida Keys, Naples and Miami, Irma weakened and limped to the east of Tampa Bay as a manageable Category 1. Hundreds of years before them, so did the Tocobagan tribe, which built mounds along the Pinellas peninsula. Although a major hurricane is long overdue in Miami, the city has dealt with its share of intense hurricanes in the past. The most prominent story has to do with American Indians. "As they are in this two-story building, the water is rising even higher, and you know this was a kid's account talking about it. The highest storm surge was in the downtown Tampa and Tarpon Springs areas. Windshield covers and other handy gear you need for, 18 trendy cowboy boots to wear this winter, 18 books youll want to read on Dr. Seuss Day, Lake Wales man accused of stealing $400K in property, Burger King brings back fan-favorite item, Missing Child Alert issued for Florida girl, 3, Dead body, infant found inside Tampa apartment, Man arrested after dumping 30 mattresses, box springs:, 4 people found dead inside Florida home, police say, FL man wins lottery, state claims he owes them money, Florida moves to expand Dont Say Gay law, Florida man wins $1 million from $30 scratch-off, Florida man buys $50 lottery game, wins $1M. It made landfall in Big Pine Key as a category 4, causing devastating damage. The oldest remaining one is located near Old Tampa Bay. Tampa launches a voucher program as an . As a hurricane's winds diminish, so does its ability to cause damage. While many people who have lived in Florida for a while believe they have experienced a truly catastrophic hurricane, few have. Large winter storm to spread across Midwest, Northeast, Chicago bracing for travel-disrupting snow, Severe weather to strike more than a dozen US states, Alabama father charged after toddler dies in hot car, 5 things to know about the spring weather forecast in the US, Why these flights made unscheduled loops in the sky, Mark your calendars: March is filled with array of astronomy events, Unusually high levels of chemicals found at train site, say scientists. Wind too strong.". By the time it reached Hardee, Desoto and Polk County the storm was a category 1 hurricane. Red tide is back (again) in Pinellas County. Tampa is also located on the coast, which makes it vulnerable to the storm surge that can accompany a hurricane. That's not going to drain out quickly," said Cathie Perkins . This is no joke. The Gulf of Mexico is a warm body of water that is a breeding ground for hurricanes. "Something about this being sacred ground or something? They lived in the area from around 900 to 1500s. Even so, some of those facts are slow to sink in. In the case of Charley Desoto, Hardee and Polk counties all experienced winds gusts well over 100 mph, causing catastrophic damage. A picture hangs in the museum showing boats outside the brick schoolhouse. In the Tampa Bay Area, only 2 of the above catastrophic hurricanes impacted the area - Charley and Irma. "Port Tampa Bay was also the first U.S. seaport to be named 'Storm Ready' by the National Weather Service when we received the designation. This article represents the opinion of the Tampa Bay Times Editorial Board. Although there were tragically two deaths in the Sarasota area, and reports of damage and power outages elsewhere, the region was, for the most part, spared. Since it seems to be working, many people still believe in the legend. Depends on who you ask,. attacks, and spam will not be tolerated. Tampa, situated on a peninsula lying along Tampa Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, is exposed to hurricanes entering the Gulf and systems forming in the Atlantic. The petroleum facilities would be out of business for days at a time. As time goes on, it comes true.. The grotto at St. Mary's Star of the Sea Church in Key West is probably Florida's most famous source of hurricane lore. 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why is tampa protected from hurricanes